财务预测

五年期收入、支出及净营运收入预测。

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Pro Forma is available to GhatanGroup members.

使用指南

Using Pro Forma well

Projects income, expenses, a capital reserve and NOI over five years, then values the building at the end with an exit cap rate. It shows how growth assumptions and the exit cap drive the outcome.

如何使用

Start from year-one figures you can defend (the NOI & Cap Rate result).
Income growth: contractual steps on existing leases (often 3%–4% in GTA industrial) and realistic re-leasing at market.
Expense growth: property taxes and insurance have risen faster than inflation recently; 3% is a floor, not a ceiling.
CapEx reserve: roof, paving, HVAC and dock equipment. 1%–3% of potential gross income is a sensible range.
Exit cap rate: usually at or above today's going-in cap. The building will be five years older.
Financing (optional): add a loan-to-value, rate and amortization to see the levered return on your equity next to the unlevered one. Set LTV to 0 for all-cash.

如何解读结果

Compare the year-five NOI with year one: that is the growth you are underwriting.
The exit value is very sensitive to the exit cap. Run it at least three times: optimistic, base and conservative.
Net proceeds are after selling costs; your own returns also need the purchase price and financing (see DSCR).

案例分析

A stabilised investment, five years out

$16.25M purchase. Year-one potential gross income $1,150,000 growing 3% a year; 5% vacancy; $210,000 expenses growing 3%; 2% capex reserve; 5.75% exit cap; 2% selling costs.

Year-one NOI: $859,500 (a 5.29% going-in cap). Year five: $967,375.
Exit value at 5.75%: $16,823,910; after 2% selling costs, $16,487,432.
Unlevered, that is about a 5.9% annual return (IRR) and a 1.30× multiple on the purchase price.

要点With an exit cap only 46 basis points above the going-in, most of the return here comes from income, not appreciation. That is a conservative, core-style profile.

The same building, three exits

Change only the exit cap rate.

At 5.50%: net proceeds $17.24M; unlevered IRR about 6.7%.
At 5.75%: $16.49M; about 5.9%.
At 6.25%: $15.17M; about 4.4%.

要点Seventy-five basis points of exit cap moves the sale price by more than $2M — more than four years of NOI growth. Underwrite the exit you can defend, not the one you hope for.

常见错误

Growing rent but not expenses
Exiting at a lower cap rate than you bought at without a reason
No capex reserve on an older building
Treating net proceeds as profit (the purchase price and loan come first)

Case studies are illustrative. Properties and figures are composites built to show the method; they are not offers or appraisals. Talk to Kam before relying on any number for a transaction.