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HomeLife/Cimerman Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage ‏کامیارقاتان، بروکر ‏صنعتی · تجاری · سرمایه‌گذاری

‏جعبه‌ابزار

‏پیش‌بینی مالی

‏پیش‌بینی پنج‌سالهٔ درآمد، هزینه و NOI.

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‏راهنما

Using Pro Forma well

Projects income, expenses, a capital reserve and NOI over five years, then values the building at the end with an exit cap rate. It shows how growth assumptions and the exit cap drive the outcome.

‏نحوهٔ استفاده

  1. Start from year-one figures you can defend (the NOI & Cap Rate result).
  2. Income growth: contractual steps on existing leases (often 3%–4% in GTA industrial) and realistic re-leasing at market.
  3. Expense growth: property taxes and insurance have risen faster than inflation recently; 3% is a floor, not a ceiling.
  4. CapEx reserve: roof, paving, HVAC and dock equipment. 1%–3% of potential gross income is a sensible range.
  5. Exit cap rate: usually at or above today's going-in cap. The building will be five years older.
  6. Financing (optional): add a loan-to-value, rate and amortization to see the levered return on your equity next to the unlevered one. Set LTV to 0 for all-cash.

‏خواندن نتیجه

  • Compare the year-five NOI with year one: that is the growth you are underwriting.
  • The exit value is very sensitive to the exit cap. Run it at least three times: optimistic, base and conservative.
  • Net proceeds are after selling costs; your own returns also need the purchase price and financing (see DSCR).

‏نمونه‌های موردی

01

A stabilised investment, five years out

$16.25M purchase. Year-one potential gross income $1,150,000 growing 3% a year; 5% vacancy; $210,000 expenses growing 3%; 2% capex reserve; 5.75% exit cap; 2% selling costs.

  1. Year-one NOI: $859,500 (a 5.29% going-in cap). Year five: $967,375.
  2. Exit value at 5.75%: $16,823,910; after 2% selling costs, $16,487,432.
  3. Unlevered, that is about a 5.9% annual return (IRR) and a 1.30× multiple on the purchase price.

‏درس این نمونهWith an exit cap only 46 basis points above the going-in, most of the return here comes from income, not appreciation. That is a conservative, core-style profile.

02

The same building, three exits

Change only the exit cap rate.

  1. At 5.50%: net proceeds $17.24M; unlevered IRR about 6.7%.
  2. At 5.75%: $16.49M; about 5.9%.
  3. At 6.25%: $15.17M; about 4.4%.

‏درس این نمونهSeventy-five basis points of exit cap moves the sale price by more than $2M — more than four years of NOI growth. Underwrite the exit you can defend, not the one you hope for.

‏اشتباهات رایج

  • Growing rent but not expenses
  • Exiting at a lower cap rate than you bought at without a reason
  • No capex reserve on an older building
  • Treating net proceeds as profit (the purchase price and loan come first)

Case studies are illustrative. Properties and figures are composites built to show the method; they are not offers or appraisals. Talk to Kam before relying on any number for a transaction.

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