GTA industrial availability, read properly.

Availability is not vacancy

Vacancy counts space that is empty today. Availability counts space being marketed — empty or not — including units whose tenant is leaving, buildings under construction that aren't pre-leased, and sublet space. Availability moves first; vacancy follows months later, if at all.

For pricing decisions, watch three things together: total availability, the share of it that is sublet (tenants giving space back is an early sign of softer demand), and the share that is new construction (a supply wave behaves differently from tenants leaving).

From scarcity to choice: 2019–2026

Between 2019 and 2022 the GTA went through the tightest industrial market in North America. E-commerce and the reshoring of inventory absorbed everything that was built, availability fell below one per cent, and net rents roughly doubled. Tenants signed early, without free rent, and owners renewed at whatever the market would bear.

From 2023 the cycle turned. Interest rates rose, occupiers paused expansion, and a large pipeline started during the scarcity delivered into a slower market — mostly big-box distribution in Brampton, Caledon, Milton and Durham. Availability climbed back to the range of a balanced market, sublet space reappeared, and asking rents eased from their peak, most of all for large new buildings.

The market is not oversupplied in the way 2009 was. Small and mid-size buildings in established infill locations remain scarce: they are rarely built, because land near the 401 and 427 is too valuable for single-storey industrial. The softness sits mostly in new, large, outer-ring space.

Size matters more than the average

A GTA-wide availability rate averages very different markets. Units under about 50,000 SF — the trades, food, light manufacturing, last-mile — face little new supply and tight availability. Buildings above about 250,000 SF compete with every new distribution centre and, when they are vacant, can take a year or more to lease, with meaningful inducements.

For an investor, that difference drives cap rates and downtime assumptions. For an owner-user, it drives price: a well-located 30,000 SF freestanding building often sells for more per square foot than a 300,000 SF building in the same municipality.

What it means

Owners and sellers: price to the space a buyer would actually compete for, not to the GTA headline. Leasing up vacancy before a sale usually adds more value than it costs, because buyers discount empty space heavily when availability is rising.

Buyers: rising availability is when buyers get choice, conditions and time. Underwrite renewals at today's rents with realistic downtime, and pay attention to how much competing space is within a five-kilometre radius.

Tenants: this is the best negotiating position in several years for large requirements: free rent, landlord work and shorter early terms are back on the table. Small-bay tenants should still expect a competitive market.