Confidential Conversation
Ghatan Commercial · HomeLife/Cimerman Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage
Who are you?
All inquiries are reviewed personally by Kamyar Ghatan. Your details are kept strictly confidential.
What are you looking for?
Be specific. The quality of your criteria determines the relevance of what we can show you.
What is your intent?
Understanding your hold strategy and timeline helps Kamyar match you accurately.
Kamyar Ghatan will review your submission and be in contact within one business day. All information is kept strictly confidential.
Published January 2025 · Ghatan Commercial
Executive Summary
2024 marked a year of market recalibration across GTA industrial real estate — elevated new supply, stabilizing rents, and returning transaction volume after a near-freeze in 2023. The setup for 2025 is more constructive than headline vacancy figures suggest.
2024 was a transition year for GTA industrial real estate. After the near-complete halt in investment sales activity in 2023 — driven by the bid-ask spread created by rapid interest rate increases — transaction volume began recovering in Q2 2024 and improved steadily through year-end. Sellers adjusted pricing expectations; buyers returned with recalibrated return requirements. Total GTA industrial investment sales volume in 2024 was estimated at 65–70% of the 2019 pre-cycle benchmark.
2024 saw the delivery of approximately 18–22 million square feet of new GTA industrial supply, the largest annual completion volume in the market's recorded history. The majority of this supply was pre-leased or in advanced lease negotiations at the time of construction commencement (2021–2022), which buffered the vacancy impact. Speculative completions represented approximately 30% of new supply — higher than the long-run average of 15–20%.
Net absorption tracked positive across the full year, though below the extraordinary levels of 2021–2022. The logistics sector consolidated footprint in several large-format leases signed in 2021 at peak rents, creating some backfill risk as those leases approach expiry. E-commerce demand, while normalizing from peak, remains structurally above pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing — particularly EV supply chain and food processing — emerged as the most active demand segment in the second half of 2024.
The recovery in investment sales was led by smaller-format transactions (under $20M) where private buyers and family offices were more willing to transact at adjusted pricing than institutional capital. Several notable portfolio transactions in the $50M–$150M range demonstrated that institutional buyers re-entered the market at cap rates in the 5.25%–5.75% range, providing a meaningful price discovery signal for the broader market.
The pipeline of new industrial supply deliveries in 2025 is meaningfully lower than 2024 — estimated at 12–15 million square feet GTA-wide — as construction starts declined sharply in 2023 when financing costs rose. This supply contraction, combined with continued steady tenant demand, supports a gradual tightening of vacancy over the 2025–2026 period. Cap rates are expected to remain range-bound absent further interest rate movement. Acquisitions made at current pricing with a 5–7 year hold horizon have a reasonable probability of generating returns above the long-run GTA industrial average.
Advisory Services
All market intelligence is provided for context. For asset-specific analysis or acquisition advisory, engage directly.
Data compiled from publicly available sources and proprietary brokerage observations. All figures are approximate and subject to revision. Not investment advice. Kamyar Ghatan, Broker & Branch Manager · HomeLife/Cimerman Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage* · Independently Owned & Operated.